MLB Baseball Column: Closer by Committee

While your options at shortstop do not compare to the Fantasy wasteland that is second base, there are still limited options for Fantasy managers.  In fact, it is very likely that 85% of the shortstops that Fantrax Salary Cap managers will roster this spring will emerge from among a group of players that come from a very narrow salary range.  The seven highest-scoring Fantasy performers at the position in 2012 plus Troy Tulowitzki all range in price from 2000 to 2550 and they will be the focus of this week’s article.

Ageless Wonders

Derek Jeter had a bounce-back effort during the 2012 season, but suffered a season-ending ankle fracture during Game 1 of the ALCS.  His ankle was surgically repaired in the off-season and he expects to be ready to return by Opening Day.  Jeter, who turns 39 in June, will likely see some time in the DH slot to rest the ankle until he returns to full strength.  The Yankee captain has seen his stolen base total drop each of the past four seasons to a career-low of nine in 2012.  Recovering from surgery to his wheels is unlikely to presage a reversal of this trend.  Jeter’s points per game  (PPG) for the past three seasons are 3.32, 3.32, and 3.23.  There’s no upside here and you would be better off spending a little more with the hope of getting a player who might outperform his salary.

Jimmy Rollins started out horrendously in 2012 – posting a .238/2/11 line through May 31^st.  However, the Phillies shortstop rebounded to emerge as the top Fantasy performer at the position over the final four months – going .255/21/57 with 20 swipes while averaging 4.00 PPG.  In fact, Rollins was wildly inconsistent throughout the 2012 season with his production from June and September (29 extra base hits and 33 RBI) alone nearly matching the rest of his 2012 performance (32 extra base hits and 35 RBI).  He finished second overall among shortstops in 2012 with 562 Fantasy points, but given the small range in salaries among the top performers at this position, I will likely elect to pay a little more for consistency.

Young Guns

Starlin Castro is a soon-to-be 23 year old who has scored 527 and 520 Fantasy points in the last two seasons.  His slight decrease in batting average in 2012 was largely due to an unlucky BABIP  (.315) – which was 30 points lower than the previous two years.  He has shown steady – if unremarkable – improvement in line drive rate, stolen bases and home runs over the course of his three seasons in the majors.  Castro has terrific speed that should eventually translate into more stolen bases, but his increase from 22 to 25 swipes in 2012 came with seven additional attempts.  We should also expect an uptick in long flies as his power develops with age.  However, he needs to be more selective at the plate – as evidenced by the fact that 37.4% of the pitches he swung at last season were out of the strike zone.

Elvis Andrus has scored 428, 498, and 484 points over each of the past 3 seasons, respectively.  He also hits in the #2 hole of one of the more prolific line-ups in baseball.  Andrus has also displayed Juan Pierre-esque power over the past 3 seasons mashing 0, 5, and 3 round-trippers, respectively.  His less-than-Ruthian muscle combined with his diminishing steals totals (just 21-for-31 in 2012) make him someone I would clearly eliminate from consideration when forging a roster.

Ian Desmond posted a career-best line of .292/25/72 with 25 steals in 2012 when his isolated power rose nearly 100 points and his HR/FB ratio increased by more than 10%.  After swatting just 18 homers combined during 2010-2011, Desmond went yard 25 times while notching 33 doubles in just 130 games.  In addition, he has now recorded back-to-back 20 stolen base seasons, led all shortstops in 2012 with 3.68 PPG, and is entering his age-27 season.  While I would expect some regression he’s a 20/20 candidate and a relative bargain at 2170.

Old Reliable

Maybe I should have called this section “Somewhat Old and Somewhat Reliable.”  Jose Reyes will turn 30 in June and is not the same Maserati who put up 699, 696, and 686 Fantasy points, respectively, in the three years from 2006 through 2008.  He has escaped the dysfunction of Miami for a franchise in Toronto that looked like it was auditioning for an episode of “Extreme Makeover.”  He is just one year removed from leading the NL in batting average and should score plenty of runs (and Fantasy points) from atop the Jays batting order.  He’s exhibiting the characteristics of a hitter improving with age as both his K% and BB% are trending in the right direction.  In fact, he has walked more than he’s struck out in each of the past two seasons.  He’s always just a balky hamstring away from the DL and he’s no longer a threat to swipe 50 bags, but at a lean position he qualifies as at least somewhat reliable.

Young and Unreliable

Troy Tulowitzki has averaged just 104 games over the past three seasons – including just 47 games played in 2012.  He has missed considerable time in his career with a couple of fluke injuries – a fractured wrist that resulted from being hit by a pitch and a thumb laceration resulting from a broken bat.  Most of the remainder of his DL time – 187 games over the course of 7 seasons has been attributable to an array of leg ailments.  That’s still an average of 27 missed games per season, so it’s impossible to make the case for Tulo as even somewhat reliable.  I’d say 135 games is probably a reasonable prediction for him.  When he is on the field, he is the best hitting shortstop in MLB - playing half his games in the best hitter’s park in baseball.  Smack in the middle of his hitting prime age at age 28, Tulo is a multiple Silver Slugger winner who has posted PPG averages of 3.6, 3.9, 4.3, and 4.0 over the past four seasons, respectively.  As with Ken Griffey Jr. once he became a regular inhabitant of the Disabled List, the best strategy with Tulo is to station him on your roster initially or not at all.  There’s no sense in using a player claim to pick him up after a hot start to the season and then watching him succumb to injury – necessitating a second player claim at the same position.

Entering his age-29 season, Hanley Ramirez is no longer the 51 steal – 714 Fantasy point stud of 2007, but he’s still a 20/20 guy who scored at a 3.38 rate in 2012 despite hitting just .257.  As with Reyes, Hanley can only be aided by his excommunication from the floundering franchise in South Florida.  His counting numbers will increase with the move to SoCal, but unlike Reyes, his K% and BB% are trending in the wrong direction. 

There is also the real possibility that the Dodgers will recognize that at this point in his career, Hanley is better suited to playing third base.  Hanley’s reputation for lackadaisical play and sulking do not bode well for a franchise hosting the refugees of failed experiments in Boston and Miami.  Hollywood is known for its dramatic production and with the plethora of oversized egos and overpaid divas, Chavez Ravine may well be the epicenter for baseball drama this summer.

The Bottom Line

I suppose you could roster a league average player like Asdrubal Cabrera (1740) or take a chance on the likes of Pete Kozma (1100) or Andrelton Simmons (1100) morphing into the second coming of………..oh, I don’t know - Mike Aviles?  Most Fantasy managers will roster three players from among Reyes, Rollins, Hanley, Desmond, Castro, and Tulo, close their eyes, and hope for the best at another relatively weak offensive position.