NFL Football Column: Goal Line Stand

Updated at 12:20 p.m. ET on Sunday 12/2/12

NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell has been impressed with Chad Henne’s ability to throw from a muddy pocket, which -- along with scattershot accuracy -- had been a problem throughout his career. Henne earned the fourth-best QB rating from Pro Football Focus last week despite facing pressure on 45.5 percent of his drop-backs.

On passes traveling 10+ yards Henne has 522 yards in three games compared to Blaine Gabbert’s 752 in 10 starts. The man whose lack of development reportedly led to Bill Parcell’s departure from Miami is sporting a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio, eye-popping 10.4 YPA and passer ratings of 126.8 and 108.0 in two starts.

What does Jacksonville’s nascent passing attack mean for fantasy owners? Don’t be surprised if a Jaguars player takes home this year’s Billy Volek award. Henne should flirt with QB1 value against a dream schedule (TEN, @BUF, NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN) after unearthing Cecil Shorts, Justin Blackmon, and Marcedes Lewis as viable weapons.

Emerging as a true No. 1 receiver, Shorts is averaging the second most yards per catch in the NFL. Perhaps more impressively, he now has more fantasy points than either Jordy Nelson or Percy Harvin. Shorts is fantasy’s No. 7 receiver over the past five weeks and No. 5 over the past three. Shorts and Blackmon have combined for 448 yards the past two games, good for 57.5 percent of Jacksonville's offense.

Although Blackmon drew pre-draft comparisons to Hakeem Nicks and Anquan Boldin for his explosive and physical run-after-catch ability, it’s been Shorts who has been running away from defenders. With a tailback-like lateral agility and short-area burst, Shorts has turned intermediate throws into quick-striking scoring plays.  He’s here to stay as a weekly fantasy asset.

Thursday Update: If I lead this article with a surprise player, there's a good chance he will come down with an even more surprising Thursday injury. Shorts (hamstring) and Blackmon (groin) were both held out of practice, apparently having sustained injuries on Wednesday. There has been nothing but the sound of crickets from the Jaguars coaches, beat writers, and national insiders since the injury report came out at 3:30 ET Thursday afternoon. If your decision comes down to a Thursday participant such as Lance Moore versus Shorts, I'd lean toward the former as a safer play. 

Saturday Morning Update: Shorts and Blackmon are both listed as "probable" after returning to practice on Friday. Both receivers as well as Henne are safe to play at their respective rankings below. 

Week 12 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Peyton Manning’s fantasy numbers may not have been impressive, but his pocket movement and accuracy were sublime at Kansas City last week. He welcomes the Bucs’ bottom of the barrel pass defense to Denver on Sunday. … Drew Brees hasn’t topped the 300-yard marker in five consecutive games, due in large part to interim coach Joe Vitt’s newfound emphasis on the running game. Brees is going to have to pass in Atlanta Thursday night to keep up with Matt Ryan in an offense that has become one-dimensional. No quarterback is better at home than Ryan.

Tom Brady is the only AFC QB averaging 300+ yards per game. The Patriots have scored 45+ points four times this year, which matches the total of the other 31 teams combined. … No QB has been sacked more times than Aaron Rodgers (37) this season. While Rodgers can expect a boost from Greg Jennings’ return, it’s fair to wonder if it will take a week or two to get everyone back on the same page.

RGIII leads all QBs in highest adjusted accuracy under pressure. While I still believe he’s the obvious rookie of the year frontrunner, the coaches’ play-calling and scheming shouldn’t go overlooked. Griffin is first in the league in yards per attempt on play action (12.5) and last in the league in yards per attempt without play action (5.7). … Tony Romo is one of five QBs averaging 300+ yards per game. He has a home game against an Eagles defense that has burned to the tune of a passer rating over 140.0 since Todd Bowles took over for Juan Castillo.

Is it any surprise that Matthew Stafford’s numbers sky-rocketed once a petulant Titus Young was prevented from lining up in the wrong spot intentionally? … Eli Manning should get a stretch-run boost from Hakeem Nicks’ gradual return to 2011 form. … Andy Dalton has been much improved over the past three games. … Colin Kaepernick has posted the second-highest QBR rating through a player’s first two starts over the last five seasons, excelling on third downs and on throws of 20+ yards.

Matchups guru Evan Silva believes we have already seen the best of Josh Freeman this season, as the Falcons provided a blueprint on slowing the Bucs offense. The Broncos will stack the box against Doug Martin and shadow Vincent Jackson with Champ Bailey. … Philip Rivers is the bizarro Stafford, habitually starting quickly before fading in the final three quarters. He’s facing a harassing Bengals defense allowing just 9.7 points per over the past three weeks. … Carson Palmer never had a chance in his return to Cincinnati, as his o-line got man-handled.

Jake Locker should theoretically get a boost from newly promoted play-caller Dowell Loggains. Kerry Collins produced the best three games of his 2010 season after Loggains took on added responsibility in December of 2010. … Joe Flacco can’t be trusted against a Steelers defense that hasn’t allowed a 200-yard passing day since early October. … Jay Cutler’s average depth of target has plummeted from 9.1 in the first half of the season to 6.7 in the second half. … Nick Foles refuses to attack down the field.

Nothing puts a bounce in a fantasy writer’s step like anecdotal evidence matching up with the metrics. The film suggested the Steelers would have had a good chance to win at Cleveland if even Brady Quinn would have been under center rather than Charlie Batch’s knuckleball floater routine. According to Pro Football Focus, Batch’s QB rating was the worst in the league last week despite facing less pressure than any other quarterback. Although national writers are still giving Ben Roethlisberger a decent chance to play, beat writers remain skeptical. If Ben sits one more week, the entire Steelers offense is hands-off against a Ravens defense allowing just 14.5 points per during their four-game winning streak. Pittsburgh’s eight Week 12 turnovers were as many as the Pats have had all season.


Week 12 Running Backs

RB Notes: Arian Foster remains fantasy’s top dog, with more rushing touchdowns than the Packers, Rams, Raiders, and Jaguars combined. … He’s also the only back with more touches than Trent Richardson’s 250, which is hard to believe considering the rookie’s early-season knee injury. Richardson squares off against a Raiders run defense that has rewarded Doug Martin and BenJarvus Green-Ellis with career games over the past month.

Adrian Peterson is not only on pace for a career-high and league-best 1,798 rushing yards, he’s also playing a bigger role in the passing game. Only three full-time starters (Ray Rice, Richardson, and LeSean McCoy) have more than Peterson’s 35 receptions. … C.J. Spiller is averaging 121 scrimmage yards the past three weeks; he’s due for a long touchdown. … Doug Martin has a tough matchup against an already stout run defense likely to follow Atlanta’s blueprint of stacking the box. … Frank Gore has been a model of consistency, topping 70 yards or producing a touchdown in all but two games this season.

Jonathan Stewart was one of the NFL’s premier size/speed packages in 2009 and 2011. He appeared to be running in quicksand by comparison to the physically explosive Bryce Brown. Only one time in 56 games has LeSean McCoy matched the 178 rushing yards of Brown, who did a better job of hitting the hole than the starter. McCoy remains out indefinitely. The Eagles could use his concussion as an excuse to see what Brown offers during the fantasy playoffs.

If Jamaal Charles can grind out a 100-yard game against the Broncos, he should have little trouble doing the same against a Panthers defense that was torched by Brown. … Ridley is fantasy’s No. 7 back, but he has perhaps his toughest matchup of the season this week. … After getting shut down for just the second time all season at Miami, Lynch faces a Chicago defense allowing the 30th-most fantasy points to opposing backs. … Chris Johnson hosts a Texans defense that has allowed just two rushing scores all season -- to Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell on Thanksgiving.

While Ryan Mathews has been one of fantasy’s biggest letdowns to date, there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Weeks 15-17 offer matchups (CAR, @NYJ, OAK) against three of the seven most generous fantasy defenses in the league. … Don’t look now, but Steven Jackson is rolling with an average of 117 scrimmage yards and 4.9 YPC over the past three weeks. … Darren Sproles is the best bet in the New Orleans backfield in a potential shootout.

The Broncos made the right call in turning Knowshon Moreno into a three-down back, letting him get into a rhythm while moving the chains a sustaining a rushing attack between the tackles. It was telling that Ronnie Hillman popped his first run outside instead of grinding out tough yardage. Moreno will have tougher sledding against a Bucs defense that has shut down the pit in the middle of the field. … Don’t read too much into BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ career game. The Raiders had no second-level defense, which meant the Law Firm and safety Matt Giordano were the only players on the screen on jailbreak runs of 49 and 39 yards.

Shonn Greene is running with more authority than he has since the playoffs in his rookie season. … DeAngelo Williams should draw the start at Kansas City with Jonathan Stewart nursing a high-ankle sprain. … The Steelers want to establish Jonathan Dwyer as the feature back once and for all. He’s not going to get much help from Charlie Batch and the passing game against an improving Ravens defense. … Mikel Leshoure’s matchup is more daunting that it looks at first glance. The Colts run defense is much improved, and they’ve held five of their past six opponents to 20 points or less.

Matt Forte (ankle) is practicing, but it’s fair to wonder if Michael Bush will see just as many carries versus the Seahawks. … Darren McFadden and DeMarco Murray are tentatively expected to return to game action, though both are in “prove-it” territory this week. Marcel Reece and Felix Jones drop to flex options if the starters get the green light. … Evan Silva’s matchup notes for Thursday’s game tell us that Michael Turner -- slow as molasses rolling uphill in January -- is averaging a paltry 2.78 yards on his last 98 carries. His worst game of the year was three weeks ago against this very same Saints defense. … The Jaguars are turning back to Rashad Jennings out of desperation, this time in a committee backfield.

Sunday Update: Jordan Todman is inactive, which means special teamer Montell Owens is the backup tailback. It should ensure a heavy workload for Rashad Jennings, who was given a slight bump. With Darren McFadden inactive, Marcel Reece is back in solid RB2 territory in a game that shouldn't be as affected by weather as we initially feared. DeMarco Murray (foot) is expected to have a limited workload this week, which leaves him and Felix Jones as mere flex options. Although the Colts run defense has been stout of late, Mikel Leshoure gets a bump after making it through a full week of practices.


Week 12 Wide Receivers

WR Notes: That’s some Madden curse. Calvin Johnson is ranked No. 1 in receiving yards, first downs, and catches of 20+ yards. He’s averaging an 8/155/0.75 stat line since complaining of knee soreness a month ago. Megatron must average 118.2 yards the rest of the way to break Jerry Rice’s single-season record of 1,848 yards. Make no mistake, he wants that record. … On pace for a 98/1,542/15 stat line, A.J. Green may be closing in on the most dominant season we’ve ever seen from an offensive player in a Bengals uniform (Coy Bacon has the defensive side covered). Fantasy owners are seeing the benefit of being the team’s only reliable weapon, as the coaches put the ball in Green’s hands via a dizzying array of reverses, wide receiver screens, slants, and bombs into double coverage.

Expected to square off against burnable CB Patrick Robinson, Julio Jones has a better matchup than Roddy White this week. … Peyton Manning has more passing yards on receiver screens than any team in the league, largely because Demaryius Thomas has been so lethal after the catch. … We knew the shootouts would come eventually. Andre Johnson has seen a whopping 34 targets leading to an NFL record 461 yards over the past two weeks.

Dez Bryant is now ninth in fantasy points for the season, second only to Calvin Johnson over the past five weeks, and on pace for a 95/1,280/9 stat line. All of that despite missing a touchdown of 30+ yards by a fingertip and posing just 29 yards total in two decoy games when he was questionable due to injury. He draws an Eagles secondary hemorrhaging big plays for a month straight. … Reggie Wayne has been the NFL’s targets leader all season, and that average continues to rise with an average of 16 the past two weeks.

Richard Sherman’s four-game Adderall suspension is on delay, which means Brandon Marshall draws the NFL’s top cover corner this week. … Marques Colston’s catches and yards are down of late, but he’s a good bet for a score in Week 13’s highest over-under. … Similar logic suggests Eric Decker is a borderline WR1 option against the Bucs’ league-worst pass defense. … Vincent Jackson may be one of the NFL’s most complete receivers, but he’s never topped 100 yards against Champ Bailey. In their 12 previous matchups, V-Jax has been held to 56 yards or less seven times.

Victor Cruz is no longer the obvious No. 1 receiver over Hakeem Nicks. … Danario Alexander has led the Chargers in targets three straight weeks and receiving yards four straight. Only Calvin Johnson, Dez Bryant, and Andre Johnson have more fantasy points over the past three weeks. … I’m not ready to shovel dirt on Larry Fitzgerald’s grave just yet. Ryan Lindley found him three times on the opening drive last week. The Cardinals will find a way to get the ball into their best player’s hands down the stretch. … Pierre Garcon escaped Week 12’s breakout game setback free.

I wouldn’t expect to see Miles Austin or Percy Harvin at full capacity this week. Harvin is fine running in a straight line, but is still limping in and out of cuts. He has the look of a game-time call for Sunday. … Ryan Broyles should be locked in as the starter opposite Calvin Johnson thanks to Titus Young’s insubordination. … Steve Smith has been outproduced by Brandon LaFell over the past few weeks. … Denarius Moore draws Joe Haden, Champ Bailey, and Brandon Flowers over the next three weeks. He’s going to need better play out of the offensive line and Carson Palmer to survive as a weekly fantasy asset.

Don’t expect an easy 75+ yards for Brian Hartline. The Patriots secondary is beginning to clamp down. … Now listed as a co-starter with Emmanuel Sanders, Mike Wallace cannot be trusted if Charlie Batch is under center again. Batch’s popgun arm had no chance against the elements in Cleveland last week. … The Chiefs have scored three offensive touchdowns over the past seven weeks, which removes Dwayne Bowe from WR3 consideration. … Davone Bess has seen a bump in targets of late, but he remains a low-upside WR3 option.

Danny Amendola is back in a walking boot, leaving his Week 13 status in doubt. … James Jones has two catches over his past two games. Expect Greg Jennings to begin eating into his snaps this week. Jennings concedes he will be on a limited snap-count of his own versus the Vikings. … No receiver does less with more than Donnie Avery, whose 0.74 fantasy points per target is the lowest of 47 receivers with at least 60 targets. Rookie T.Y. Hilton is on the opposite end of the spectrum in converting targets to fantasy production.

Touchdowns are notoriously fickle from week to week. Fantasy owners can’t count on Mohamed Sanu to keep scoring at an absurd rate on limited targets. … Chris Givens has six plays of 30+ yards on 43 targets this season. The 2009 Rams had six plays of 30+ yards all year on 513 targets. … The Eagles are moving Riley Cooper from backup split end to starting flanker with DeSean Jackson out for the season. Damaris Johnson will only play in multi-wide sets. Cooper isn’t a fantasy option with Nick Foles averaging less than 5.0 YPA and failing to move the offense through the air.


Week 12 Tight Ends

TE Notes: I don’t remember any position going through a stretch where no player could be trusted any more than another. We can write off Jimmy Graham’s disappointing Week 12 output as a one-game aberration against a dominant defense. The rest of the tight end names, however, might as well be thrown into a hat and picked at random.

Despite his disappointing 36 yards on three targets, I was encouraged by Aaron Hernandez’s performance on 75 percent of the Thanksgiving snaps. He looked as quick as ever on a first-quarter catch-and-run and lost a touchdown to a push-off call. … Jermaine Gresham has topped 60 yards or found the end zone in six of his past seven games, leaving him as one of fantasy’s most consistent tight ends. … Owen Daniels faces a Titans defense that has shown massive improvement against tight ends over the past month and a half. It’s still a decent enough matchup.

You don’t need me to tell you that Vernon Davis is a tricky fantasy play. He could throw up a goose egg or blow up to the tune of 100 yards and a pair of scores. I’m going to need a reliable TE1 to bench Davis’ potential, and I can count that species on one of Antonio Alfonseca’s hands. … Brandon Myers dropped to ninth in fantasy points after the Oakland aerial attack’s faceplant in Cincinnati. … Antonio Gates is a mystery wrapped in a riddle drenched in secret sauce. … Kyle Rudolph has been cleared of his concussion and downplayed his shoulder injury. Expect him to be active at Green Bay.

Dustin Keller has averaged a TE1-caliber 5.5/68/0.5 stat line over the past five games if you throw out his 16-yard performance in Week 11. … With Chad Henne at quarterback, Lewis produced his best fantasy game in two years versus the Texans and his season-high in yards against the Titans. … Dallas Clark has been a top-10 fantasy tight end over the past five weeks and he’s facing a Broncos defense allowing the second-most points to the position. … Dwayne Allen is no longer a high-end TE2 option with Coby Fleener back in the lineup.


Week 12 Defense/Special Teams

Week 12 Kickers