NFL Football Column: Goal Line Stand

Last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET on Sunday, Dec. 9.

With fantasy playoff berths on the line, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan all finished between 23-30 in Week 13 points. One of the easiest pitfalls for fantasy owners and NFL talking heads is overstating the importance of the previous week’s game while overlooking trends, matchups, and momentum.

Ryan had his first career four-game streak of 300+ yards entering Week 13, highlighted by a career game of 411 yards and three scores at New Orleans in the previous Week 10 meeting. Ryan has scored his Week 14 opponent in their last four matchups. Tom Brady had multiple touchdowns in six consecutive games prior to last week’s. Don’t overthink your lineup decisions entering the most important stretch of the season.

In a potential shootout, Brady welcomes an injury-depleted Texans secondary that has surrendered an average of 368 yards to Chad Henne, Matthew Stafford, and Jake Locker the past three weeks.

Even better, the passing game’s focal point, Aaron Hernandez, is back to being the NFL’s most explosive tight end after the catch. After nearly scoring three separate times on the opening drive, Hernandez came up just shy of the pylon on the first play of the fourth quarter. He was inches from a monster fantasy game last week.

In a fantasy world without reliable tight ends, Hernandez is the exception to the rule.


Week 14 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: While it’s true that the sloppy spate of Thursday night games have generally led to fantasy disappointment, this matchup is too good for a streaking Peyton Manning to botch. The tanking Raiders defense has allowed 37.8 points per game since Week 9, the highest average in the league.

Robert Griffin III’s 104.4 passer rating is the highest through 13 weeks for any rookie since at least 1960. Russell Wilson’s 95.2 is fourth on the list, behind Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger. RGIII remains the most efficient deep passer in the league. … Since Todd Bowles took over as defensive boss, the Eagles have turned opposing QBs into an unholy amalgam of ‘84 Marino, ‘99 Warner, ‘04 Manning, ‘07 Brady, and ‘11 Rodgers. According to statistics and film, matchups don’t get any better than Josh Freeman’s this week.

Andrew Luck’s fantastic finish at Detroit marked the third time he’s passed for 350+ yards and led a game-winning drive. The only other QB to accomplish that feat in a season was Warren Moon in 1991. Luck ranks at the top of the list with Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger in QBR under duress and continues to attack downfield more aggressively than any QB in the league. He’s on pace for 4,795 yards, which would break Cam Newton’s rookie record by a whopping 744. … Don’t look now, but Newton is fantasy’s No. 1 QB over the past five weeks. He’s a legit QB1 in an otherwise tough matchup against Mike Nolan’s masterful pass defense.

With 300+ yards in five of the past six weeks, Tony Romo is just under a 5,000-yard pace on the season. ... Even against an improving Saints defense, Eli Manning is a fine Week 14 play in a potential shootout with Drew Brees. ... Colin Kaepernick has posted a QBR of 70+ in three consecutive starts, a feat that Alex Smith never accomplished in the past five seasons. Over that three-game span, Kaepernick’s +10.7 is the highest QB grade handed out by Pro Football Focus. NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell insists Kaepernick “did not play poorly by any stretch” in the loss at St. Louis. In other words, don’t listen to any of the talking heads second-guessing one of the smartest coaching staffs in the NFL.

The matchup and home/road splits suggest Joe Flacco has borderline QB1 appeal this week. … Ben Roethlisberger appears to be on track to start against the Chargers, though the Steelers figure to lean more on the ground attack as he eases back in. … Nick Foles has been sacked just twice in the past two games, which suggests Michael Vick’s hesitance was the biggest factor in the Eagles’ aberrant sack, hurry, and hit totals. The rookie faces a defense allowing 300+ passing yards per game.

Russell Wilson has been downgraded due to matchup. The Cardinals have been horrendous on run defense over the past six weeks but remain one of the toughest pass defenses in the league. … Christian Ponder is last in the league in percentage of passing yards through the air. That’s no surprise. First in the league, though? Mark Sanchez. Ponder’s YPA has plummeted from 6.7 with Percy Harvin to 5.0 without him. … John Skelton has reclaimed the Cardinals job after Ryan Lindley authored one of the worst quarterback games any of us have ever seen. … Brady Quinn is coming off the best game by a Chiefs QB in a half-decade. History tells us he’s in for a faceplant this week.

Week 14 Running Backs

RB Notes: Adrian Peterson has 947 rushing yards over the past six games compared to Christian Ponder’s 871 passing yards. He’s also averaging 6.2 YPC compared to Ponder’s 6.0 per throw. Peterson’s 1,446 rushing yards are more than 22 NFL teams. With four games to go, he already has the second-highest rushing total of his career while boasting a 7.8 YPC during his six-game 100-yard streak. According to Pro Football Focus, only nine running backs have more total rushing yards than Peterson’s 919 yards after contact. He could run on the 1985 Bears, much less the 2012 version minus its leading tackler.

Advanced NFL Stats has an interesting article comparing NBA’s advancements in usage rate data to Andrew Luck’s efficiency while carrying the burden of the Colts offense. The same theory may go a long way toward explaining Arian Foster’s dwindling YPC average this season. Through 12 games, Foster has 36 more carries than the next-closest running back. Despite the low output last week, he looked fine while the Texans tried to save his legs by sprinkling in Justin Forsett.

Don’t worry about Ray Rice’s workload. The Ravens had the same idea as Houston, trying to save their overworked feature back’s legs in a game that should have been won handily. Whoops. Facing a daunting schedule, Baltimore is back to must-win territory. … Lynch has an excellent matchup against a Cardinals defense that has surrendered 170+ rushing yards in three of the past four games.

As Rotoworld’s Mike Clay points out, the average yards per carry across the NFL is 4.2 this season. Bryce Brown averages 4.4 yards after contact. LeSean McCoy’s most rushing yards in back-to-back games is 311. Brown has 347 in his first two NFL starts, the highest two-game total for an Eagles back since Hall of Famer Steve Van Buren more than 60 years ago. Of the five rookies with back-to-back games of 160+ yards since 1960, Brown is the first to do it in his first two starts. He’s matchup proof right now.

C.J. Spiller’s workload was down last week, which gave fantasy owners a chance to see his floor of 84 yards and a touchdown. His ceiling is much higher against a mediocre Rams run defense. … With 153 yards at Baltimore, Alfred Morris and Robert Griffin III would break the 1979 Cardinals record for most combined rookie rushing yards in a season. … DeMarco Murray has regained workhorse status just in time to face a Bengals defense ranking 30th in defensive rush success rate.

Stevan Ridley has been the acme of consistency, but he has a tough matchup against a Texans defense that didn’t allow a rushing score all season until Thanksgiving day in Detroit. … I love the way Steven Jackson has been playing of late, but the matchup isn’t quite as enticing as it looks on the surface. Since their Week 8 bye, the Bills run defense ranks first in average YPC at 3.14 and second to the Browns (65.7) in yards per game (78.5). The caveat is that Buffalo has faced the underwhelming ground attacks of the Jags and Colts the past two weeks.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis is fantasy’s No. 2 back over the past three weeks with a dominant RT Andre Smith paving the way. The Lawfirm has another plum matchup this week against a reeling Cowboys run defense. … Chris Johnson showed plenty of burst last week, but his offensive line got manhandled even before losing three starters against the Texans. … Knowshon Moreno has a juicy matchup against a Raiders defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing backs.

After averaging just 2.8 YPC through Week 5, Shonn Greene has averaged 4.4 yards per on his last 134 carries over the past seven games. He hasn’t been held under 50 rushing yards in a game over that span after failing to clear that mark in all but one of the first five. … Jonathan Dwyer will handle feature back duties as a poor man’s Jerome Bettis. … Mikel Leshoure joins Doug Martin as the only back with six rushing scores over the past five weeks, but he’s losing touches to Joique Bell.

Ryan Mathews’ vision and football IQ have come under fire this week entering a prohibitive matchup with a shutdown Steelers defense. Just don’t be surprised if he closes out the season with a string of 100-yard games against three of the softest run defenses (CAR, @NYJ, OAK) in the NFL. … Vick Ballard should be a three-down back with Donald Brown out of the lineup. … Darren McFadden supposedly has his burst back, but it’s going to be hard to trust any Raiders player against a swarming Broncos defense.

Coach Chan Gailey attributed Fred Jackson’s season-high 25 carries to the driving rain last week. He’s viewed as better “mudder” than C.J. Spiller. Jackson can’t count on a heavy workload if the weather is inclement. … Special teamer Montell Owens is poised for lead-back duties if Rashad Jennings (concussion) can’t gain clearance. … Alex Green reclaims the feature back role with James Starks out multiple games. Keep expectations low. Green is averaging just 3.3 YPC. The Packers have gone 39 games without a 100-yard rusher, the longest streak in the NFL.

Sunday Update: Bumped Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas with Chris Ivory out. Darren Sproles doesn't have a carry since Week 8.

Week 14 Wide Receivers

WR Notes: Jerry Rice holds the single-season NFL record with 1,848 receiving yards in 16 games. Over Calvin Johnson’s last 16 games, he’s hauled in 122 passes for 2,199 yards and 11 touchdowns. … A picture of consistency, Demaryius Thomas is top-five on the season, over the past five weeks, and over the past three weeks.

Brandon Marshall has six 100-yard performances in 12 games this season. All Bears wide receivers combined had produced seven 100-yard performances in last 85 games prior to the 2012 season. … This year’s lesson in patience has been provided by Dez Bryant, who has double digit fantasy points in all but the two injured/decoy games since Week 4. Tony Romo is now sporting a passer rating of 118.1 on throws to Bryant, who is fantasy No. 1 receiver over the past three weeks. Bryant’s numbers through 39 career games compare favorably to those of Hall of Famer Michael Irvin.

See the QB notes on Josh Freeman if you can’t get excited about Vincent Jackson’s dream matchup. … Wes Welker is a tough matchup in the slot for an undermanned Texans secondary. … Julio Jones’ upside can never be benched. ... Don’t overthink Roddy White’s disappointing Week 13 output. Before the Saints game, the last time he was held under two catches was six years ago.

Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings, and James Jones all have a good chance of finding the end zone against a Lions defense averaging 33.3 fantasy points to wide receivers over the past three games. … Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Marques Colston are all candidates to blow up in a potential fantasy bonanza. … The Redskins’ secondary has been a weakness all season, allowing the second-most receiving yards after the catch. Torrey Smith got open consistently versus the Steelers last week and should feast more famine in the week’s most intriguing matchup. … Danario Alexander may be on fire, but the Steelers secondary has been the cooler, holding opposing QBs under 180 yards for seven consecutive games.

Take this lesson into next season: The four receivers ranked 7-10 in fantasy points over the past five weeks are Cecil Shorts, Alexander, T.Y. Hilton, and Justin Blackmon. Don’t draft low-upside WR3 types. A keen fantasy owner can find their like (including Cobb) on the waiver wire the week before a breakout to top-20 territory. … Only Percy Harvin, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson have more than Shorts’ 400 yards after the catch this season. Check back Friday to make sure he’s cleared from his concussion and on track to play. Antonio Cromartie will be shadowing Justin Blackmon, not Shorts.

Steve Smith is more trustworthy than you think against a banged-up Asante Samuel. He’s cleared 60 yards or scored a touchdown in six of the past seven games with a steadily improving Cam Newton. … Pierre Garcon is 13th in fantasy points over the past three weeks. … Eric Decker’s targets have dwindled, leaving him as a boom-or-bust play against a shabby Raiders secondary. I would play him as a WR3 this week. … Larry Fitzgerald welcomes back John Skelton, with whom he burned Seattle for nine catches and 149 yards in the season finale a year ago.

While Josh Gordon is coming off his best game of the season, it’s fair to point out that QBs are throwing to their No. 1 receiver just 6.1 times per game -- the lowest figure in the league -- against the Chiefs. … Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper face a Bucs defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. … Mike Wallace welcomes Ben Roethlisberger back with open arms, but he’s going to be hard to trust as a legit WR3 while sharing co-starter status with Emmanuel Sanders. … Michael Crabtree should be more consistently targeted with Mario Manningham (shoulder) in doubt. … Dwayne Bowe can’t be trusted against top corner Joe Haden. … Ditto Denarius Moore/Champ Bailey and Justin Blackmon/Antonio Cromartie. ... Golden Tate is fantasy's No. 15 receiver over the past five weeks, though his 19 targets are the lowest of any receiver in the top-40. That's what we call an outlier.

Week 14 Tight Ends

TE Notes: Although Garrett Graham has more fantasy points than Jimmy Graham over the past three weeks, Jimmy is still tied with Brandon Myers for the most among tight ends over the past five. Yes, tight end has been pot luck over the past month. … Myers and garbage time king Carson Palmer should have plenty of opportunity for fourth-quarter stat-padding against a Broncos defense that struggles only to defend tight ends.

Owen Daniels just missed a touchdown at Tennessee last week. He should make up for it against a Pats defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to tight ends. … Jermaine Gresham is shockingly at the top of Pro Football Focus’ yards-after-catch and YAC/reception metrics. … Heath Miller may have the steadiest floor among all tight ends, failing to top 40 yards just twice all season while finding the end zone in half of his games.

Rudolph has averaged nine targets and 6/57/1 stat line with Percy Harvin out of the lineup. … Martellus Bennett has another plus matchup after burning the Redskins for a season-best 5/82/1 stat line in Week 13. … Keep an eye on Brandon Stokley’s (wrist, hip) status Thursday night. Jacob Tamme played the slot last week, leading to a team-high 13 targets. Should Stokley get the green light, Tamme should drop six spots on this list.

Olsen missed Wednesday’s practice with a back injury. As long as he returns by Friday, he should be good for low-end TE1 production with Brandon LaFell (turf toe) in doubt. … Marcedes Lewis has posted season-highs in yards for three consecutive weeks. … Jared Cook was the passing-game focal point in the first game under new play-caller Dowell Loggains, seeing a season-high in targets and snaps. He’s finished extremely strong in the past two seasons. … Dennis Pitta has an excellent matchup against a Redskins defense that gives up the most fantasy points to tight ends. Bump him 7-8 spots in PPR formats. … Vernon Davis still has a ceiling that ranks with the best of the tight ends. His floor has become untenable, however. … Ditto Antonio Gates -- without the sky-high ceiling.

Thursday evening update: Brandon Stokley (wrist, hip) is active at Oakland. Tamme saw a season-high 13 targets while playing the slot with Stokley out of the lineup last week. Stokley's return makes Tamme far less appetizing as a low-upside fantasy tight end.


Week 14 Defense/Special Teams

Week 14 Kickers