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NCAA Football Column: NCAAF with Michael Emmett

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November 17, 2012
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Will it Be a Ho-Hum Day?

Michael Emmett
Senior Writer, Fantrax

What will happen today in Waco, Texas?  I believe if any of the top undefeated teams (K-State, Oregon or Notre Dame) will lose today it will likely come from the high flying Bears in central Texas.

Oregon is way too strong for Stanford – their offense has never been better and is clicking on all cylinders – possibly better than any offense in the history of college football.  If Chip Kelly and Co. didn’t take their collective foot off the accelerator so early in games, we could see the Ducks get to 100 pts will relative ease. 

And Notre Dame – well, this week is a virtual bye against Wake Forest.

Nobody is giving the bears a chance but I have some stats that will raise your eyebrows.  With Bama’s loss to A&M last Saturday in Tuscaloosa, the Cats have the top perch and are destined to a date in Miami on Monday January 7th if they can win out.  Most believe the only chance for a K-State loss will be in their final game – a home date against the all-of-a-sudden hot Texas Longhorns on December 1st in Manhattan, Kansas.  The odds-makers and experts are totally overlooking the Baylor Bears.  Yes I realize Robert Griffin III is now in the NFL playing for the Redskins.  But this Baylor offense has not lost a thing.  Baylor looks primed for a great game, while the Cats are tired, injured and due for a major letdown – and where better to do that then in Waco, Texas.

BCS history shows the Wildcats can't take beating Baylor for granted.

According to Elias Stats & Info, Big 12 teams haven't fared well after moving to the No. 1 spot in the BCS standings. This is the eighth time since the final BCS standings in 2003 that a Big 12 team has been No. 1. The previous seven Big 12 teams went 2-5 in their next games, and only one maintained the top spot the next week (Texas in 2008).  This does not bode well for K-State.  The pressure to maintain this lofty status can be overwhelming at times.  Colin Klein should have a field day but we all know one bad bounce can change the momentum in a massive game like this.  Baylor may not win the game but you can be sure they’ll keep it close.

The Bears have dropped five of their previous six games and will have to win two of their last three contests (they also host No. 23 Texas Tech and No. 24 Oklahoma State) to qualify for a bowl game. Not having their Heisman quarterback from last season has been no issue at all. Quarterback Nick Florence leads the Big 12 in passing and total offense, and wide receiver Terrance Williams has 77 catches for 1,431 yards. Baylor's defense has been as bad as advertised, though; it ranks 115th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 39.4 points per game.

But the one thing that can’t be overlooked is the ageless wonder Bill Snyder.  He has been awesome this season and is the likely coach of the year again. Snyder knows how to beat teams from Texas. After last week's victory over TCU, the Wildcats have won nine games in a row against teams from the Lone Star State.  If they make it 11 straight, then a trip to Miami is a guarantee probably against the lethal Ducks from Oregon.

 

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Michael Emmett Nov 19, 2012 7:56:48 AM EST
wow - this columinst knows his stuff.

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